In an article on Slate, writer Joshua Keating uncovered Wikileaks cables dating all the way back to 2006 that foreshadowed the events that have unfolded in Ukraine.
The cable from 2006 titled, “Ukraine: The Russia Factor In Crimea - Ukraine’s ‘soft Underbelly’?”, warns of instability in Crimea and a potential threat from pro-Russians.
“Discussions with a wide range of contacts in Crimea November 20-22 and officials in Kyiv discounted recent speculation that a return of pro-Russian separatism in Crimea, which posed a real threat to Ukrainian territorial integrity in 1994-95, could be in the cards. However, nearly all contended that pro-Russian forces in Crimea, acting with funding and direction from Moscow, have systematically attempted to increase communal tensions in Crimea in the two years since the Orange Revolution.”
Another cable from 2009 had a less optimistic view on the tenuous Ukranian-Russian relationship.
“Recent Russian actions have spurred a public discussion within the Ukrainian elite about Russian intentions toward Ukraine. The most systematic contribution to the debate has been made by former National Security Advisor Volodymyr Horbulin, who believes that internal Russian considerations are pushing Russia toward a confrontation with Ukraine prior to the expiration of the Black Sea Fleet basing agreement in 2017.”